There's a lot of talk about 3D TV these days, with some folks even thinking it will make an overture toward mainstream acceptance in 2010. Certainly, 3D TV is going to be a big topic at the Consumer Electronics Showcase in January, but that doesn't mean a majority of consumers will be watching scads of 3D programming in the new year.
Recently, I read an interesting article from techradar.com, a UK Web site, questioning whether 3D TV is all marketing hype. It's a good piece, so read it if you have a chance.
Personally, I think 3D TV is inevitable, but I also think it's going to be awhile before it hits the mainstream. Just look how long it's taken Blu-ray and HDTV to gain a real foothold. Recently, we saw some good news when the Blu-ray Disc Association approved a standard for encoding 3D to Blu-ray.
Still, as the techradar article notes, 3D TV has to meet several challenges before it goes mainstream. One of the biggest is that a lot of people just paid hundreds, if not thousands, of dollars to buy HD TV sets. It's unlikely that they'll be fired up about replacing those perfectly usable pieces of equipment with 3D capable sets when there isn't a lot of 3D programming available just yet.
What do you think? Are you fired up about 3D TV? Do you think it will be a bust? I'm always curious to hear your thoughts.
Comments
of course it’s coming especially with all the 3d cinemas out there , the natural progression is a home experience for the consumers
black and white
Colour
Hd tv
3d tv
holographic
this has always been the order of development
Roddy:
How long do you think it will be before the general public (say, 40% of households) embrace the technology?
Obviously, TV manufacturers have the ability to deliver a nice 3D presentation at home, but I think the relatively high investment cost may keep this technology on the back burner for some time. Televisions have a pretty long shelf life and — as home entertainment devices go — they’re fairly pricey.
I tend to think it’s going to take people even longer to embrace 3D TV than it did Blu-ray because people need to buy not only new players but new TVs.
Never going to happen- UNLESS and UNTIL they deal with the problem of cheesy cardboard glasses.
I think there must be a place in the market for a comfortable pair of spectacles that will fit over ‘normal’ glasses, be affordable and will work with all forms of 3D. I mean in the theatres and on the TVs.
Robert:
The glasses that they use with the sets coming out now are not cardboard. Whether they’re cheesy or not will depend entirely on perspective.
One of the problems some people see is that the glasses are themselves fairly pricey. They vary depending on the system, but you’re generally looking at about $50.
A couple of things to remember
Today’s TVs don’t have the lifespan of the old CRT TV’s. They break at a quicker and higher rate than the CRT TV’s that could last 20 years. You also don’t see many TV repair shops around. If the warranty is out then we buy a new TV (that costs more than the CRTV ever did which is kind of ironic) So with that said – when 3D is a technology available then people will just gradually go for it.
3D will follow the standard product mode. The next 2-3 years will remain cutting-edge and then move into the mature market in about 5 years. This is similiar to HDTV’s and I don’t expect that we see anything else.
Is that slow? I don’t think so – it is the normal product development.
Hi Mike:
Good points about the lifespan of sets and the fact that many folks will replace rather than repair aging electronics. Thanks for chiming in.
It will take some time before the market are ready for 3D TV. One major drawback is TV cable/sat providers have major issues with the bandwidth broadcasting. SPEED and COST…UPGRADING the existing equipment.
Hey, I think everyone is missing an obvious angle. With an encoding standard for 3d blu-ray – I think it will be the game programmers / publishers that will truly lead the charge for adaptation for 3d TV. Sporting events in 3d would be cool, but the challenges with capturing a good angle for awesome 3d experience is greater than programming an awesome interactive 3d experience. Combine 3d TV / game with the Microsoft Xbox 360 Natal technology, and you have a 1-2 combo that is hard to beat.
Who wants to watch a show with glasses on. I wore contact lenses for 20 years because I hate wearing glasses. And I finally got operated to get rid of the lenses.
Watching a movie in a cinema once in a while is ok but wearing glasses for every program, forget that!
Wilson: You make a good point, but I’m covering the International Consumer Electronic Show, and several 3D networks were announced today. They’re supposed to be up before the end of 2010. Also, a couple manufacturers are offering TVs that will convert current 2D content to 3D. We’ll have to see if that’s enough to drive a purchase.
Rob: I think you’re right. It looks like 3D gaming will be the driving force behind early adoption.
Sisley: A lot of folks feel like you do, but the major manufacturers confident theirs a market for the 3D TVs. This will be interesting to follow.
I’m sorry to burst your 3D bubble but 3D TV won’t catch on until you ditch the glasses. Simply not gonna happen. Cost too, both to the supplier and consumer will kill it, at least for now. It’s a great idea that’s ahead of it’s time. Give it a decade and it will be better.
Ruth. I think you’re right that it’s going to take some time, but I’m not sure about five years.
Gamers seem like they may adopt it right away. I guess we’ll have to see about everybody else.